Saturday, February 8, 2014

I'M MAKING ROBOTS!!!!!!

I was recently informed that I received a very cool research position this summer which will involve making robots. MAKING. ROBOTS. I cannot wait to start.


Monty Hall Problem

Probability has long been one of my favorite subjects. For whatever reason, probability has always evoked images of the kind associated with Casino Royale or poker players in fedoras sitting around a table smoking cigars. At least, this is what I imagined myself as when I was as a small, awkward, twelve-year-old sitting down to do my math homework at night. I think I probably made math cooler than it was, but this is another story. One of my favorite probability problems is the Monty Hall Problem. Monty Hall was the host of a 1980's game show called "Let's Make A Deal." Contestants had to choose which of three doors their prize lie behind. If the door did not conceal the prize, which was an expensive car or something of that nature, it concealed something more along the lines of a goat or a llama. After the contestant guessed a door, the host would open one wrong door. The contestant was then asked whether or not he or she wanted to choose another door. When "Let's Make A Deal" was popular, a woman named Marylin vos Savant was writing a column called "Ask Marilyn" for Parade magazine. Savant was famous for being in the Guinness Book of World Records for having the highest IQ. Someone wrote to ask Savant whether the contestant on "Let's Make a Deal" should change his or her choice once the contestant saw the host reveal the wrong door. Savant said that the contestant should always choose the other door. Some very intelligent people argued with her on this point. Eventually she was proven correct. Although somewhat counter intuitive, the problem is fairly simple. When there are three doors and you pick one, there is a 2/3 chance that you have chosen the wrong door. The host will then reveal a wrong door. If you switch to the other door, you will choose the prize door, only if you had a goat the first time. You will only lose after switching if you had the prize door the first time (which is a 1/3 chance). Therefore, a person who switches has a 2/3 chance of winning the prize, while a person who doesn't switch has a 1/3 chance of winning. Wow. Such math.

(via www.letsmakeadeal.com)
(via www.letsmakeadeal.com)